The SIMID consortium prepared a technical note (v2021-03-25) containing the latest results on their short-term prediction modelling of hospital and ICU admissions, and scenario analyses based on dynamic transmission modelling.

Preliminary conclusions

  • The age-specific vaccination uptake and the higher transmissibility and severity of variants of concern (VOC), primarily VOC-202012/1 or lineage B.1.1.7, have caused a change in the relation between confirmed COVID-19 cases, daily number of new hospitalizations, ICU load and number of COVID-19 related deaths.
  • Model scenarios informed by epidemiological data until March 22nd, 2021 and social contact data until March 9th 2021, show an increase up to 330 new hospital admissions per day, on average, by the end of April. The projected hospital load corresponds with >4000 occupied hospital beds at the peak, on average, by May 2021. However, these projections show a large uncertainty interval and should be interpreted with care.
  • Model scenarios assuming an instant decrease in transmission from the 29th of March onward, show a sharp drop in hospital admissions early April and a reduced hospital load. The magnitude of the reduction depends on contact behavior and adherence to the measures. This model is suited for scenario analyses to investigate possible future paths, it is not a prediction model.

The full document is available here.