The SIMID consortium prepared a new technical note (v2021-08-18) containing the model estimates of hospital and ICU admissions and load by a short term prediction model and a stochastic dynamic transmission model using observational data up to December 2021.

The full document is available here.

Conclusions

• The short-term prediction model depicts a further increase in new hospitalizations and ICU load, driven by the current trends in positivity ratio. The model predicts between 78 and 136 new hospital admissions and between 242 and 282 patients in ICU on August 28.

• A further increase in hospital admissions is predicted in all regions (Brussels, Flanders and Wallonia), with a doubling of the number of new hospitalizations from August 16 to August 28 in both Brussels and Wallonia, and an increase of 70% in Flanders.

• Social mixing and thus risk behaviour still drives the projected burden of disease. An increase of +50% of the behaviour we estimate for August 2021, shows hospital admission levels in line with the projections using the September 2020’’ behaviour which would result in a high pressure on hospital capacity. If the increase in risk behaviour is only +30% of the August 2021 situation, we project on average only half of the daily hospital admissions and ICU load.

We wrote also a report with additional results for the Brussels Captial Region, which is available here.