The RESTORE consortium constitutes an inter-university collaboration between different partners affiliated to universities in Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia with the goal to join forces when producing different scenario analyses with regard to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium. These scenario analyses are combined in an ensemble method similar to what is done in climate and weather forecast models. This fruitful collaboration among research groups at the universities of Namur (UNamur), Ghent (UGent), Brussels (VUB, ULB), Leuven (KU Leuven), Antwerp (UA) and Hasselt (UHasselt) finds its origin in an FWO project (G0G2920N) that started in May, 2020. One of the work packages of the project was related to the prediction of the daily number of new hospitalizations until the end of 2020. Along the way, the time horizon has shifted and multiple models and their output were combined in these scenario analyses. These mathematical models are based on Belgian data on hospitalization, mortality, serology, social contact data and information concerning health facilities such as elderly homes. These models are updated regularly and results are systematically summarized in a report.

Most recent update (2021-04-17)

Long-term scenarios for the number of new hospitalizations during the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic (version 8.0)

Report 8.0 describes the possible impact of the 501Y.V1 variant and vaccination for Belgium and illustrates the importance of epidemic control in the period to come. This report describes the combined impact of different social distancing scenarios, the 501Y.V1 variant and the ongoing vaccination campaign in Belgium and illustrates the importance of epidemic control in the period up to August 1, 2021. Changing social distancing behaviour too soon might, in spite of the ongoing vaccination campaign, still lead to a substantial fourth hospitalization wave. However, postponing behavioural changes that increase viral transmission allows the vaccination campaign to offset the transmission risk and associated disease burden.
restore Model trajectories for the number of new hospitalizations (mean with 95% credible interval) when assuming an increase in social mixing in May and June with a vaccine uptake of 60k and 40k, respecively. More scenario results are included in the full text.

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